Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
